North Central Plains

Heat fades a bit across the US

I apologize for the long break between discussions. I was away for the last 10 days in Haiti doing some missions work. However, I am now back and look for regular discussions to continue.

Day 1-5 Discussion

The temperature pattern looks to be somewhat irregular across the country this period with most of the country above normal, but severe heat lacking. It will be hot across Texas with Dallas once again in the 100-105 range this week, but nothing to out of the ordinary for Texas residents. It will be warm in the northeast, but again not extreme heat.

It will be a wet period in the southeast US south of the Mason-Dixon line as we see abundant low level moisture combined with a stalled out cold front producing copious afternoon showers and storms. I attached the 6z GFS Ensemble day 1-5 total QPF to illustrate this. Severe weather does not look to be a huge issue over the next few days although isolated severe weather will be possible in the southeast and also in the north-central Plains.

Day 6-10 Discussion

The general theme of this period will be the expansion of a heat ridge in the plains eastward bringing most of the country into an above normal temperature pattern. This will be a round of warmth to the Midwest and east coast as we head into the late weekend and early part of the next week. I wouldn’t be surprised to see low to mid 90s in the Chicago area and perhaps low 90s back into the northeast, with mid to upper 90s in the southeast.

The ECMWF and Canadian model want to drop a trough into the northeast US late in the 6-10 day period bringing cooling to the eastern US and Great Lakes; however the GFS and GFS Ensemble are not as aggressive with this trough and keep it warmer. In general though looks for most areas to average above normal this period with areas of the Missouri Valley perhaps being the hottest with respect to normal.

Day 11-15 Discussion

Although most of the country will continue above normal, it looks like the pattern is going to favor the warmest temperatures across the interior western US, Rockies, and Plains. This is because the 500mb pattern is going to place a trough in the Pacific NW, a broad heat ridge centered over the southern Rockies, expanding into the Plains, and a broad weak trough over the eastern US. This pattern will be a hot one for areas like Denver, Salt Lake City, Boise, and perhaps to an extent Las Vegas. Areas like Texas northeast into Chicago will be hot as well. In the east, temperatures will likely average above normal, but the weak trough will keep the extreme heat out and also promote a good chance of showers and storms in the afternoons.

Severe Weather Outbreak Expected Across North Central Plains ...

An extensive Slight Risk is in place from Montana & Wyoming all the way to Georgia & South Carolina. There are several areas of strong storms this morning across the Plains. One area is across the Northern Plains and a second area is across SE Kansas. The most intense storms are across the second area where a couple Severe Thunderstorm Warnings have been issued. These storms, along with activity farther north, may persist through midday/early afternoon.

Golf ball-size hail, damaging winds to 70 mph, and isolated tornadoes can be expected elsewhere across the Slight Risk area. The severe threat will persist into the overnight hours, so be sure to have your weather radio activated today since severe weather could strike with little or no advance warning. I will be issuing frequent weather updates this afternoon and evening on our Facebook page, so be sure to check frequently.

A few isolated supercells may develop late this afternoon from South Central Kansas to Northwest Texas.